Customer demand for travel remains strong: TUI confirms earnings expectation for FY23

Confirmation of expectations for a strong Summer 2023 with bookings in final month of season well ahead of Summer 2022. TUI said “We are pleased to see the positive momentum continuing into Winter 2023/24 supported by higher prices. TUI is well positioned to achieve the results target for FY 2023.”

Summer 2023

Strong pipeline of 13.7m1 bookings for the Summer 2023 season, a +5% increase against prior season and close to pre-pandemic levels at 96%
1.1m additional bookings taken since our Q3 2023 update with demand in the final month of season well ahead of Summer 2022 at +8%
Season extension in particular in Greece and Turkey to accommodate increased demand
ASP for Summer 2023 continues to be well ahead at +8% versus prior season and +27% versus Summer 2019, slightly ahead of the levels reported at Q3

Positive momentum continuing into Winter 2023/24 with an expanded programme and overall bookings up +15% against Winter 2022/23. Promising booking situation across all key source markets supported by higher prices +4% versus prior season. We are hedged for the coming Winter and Summer season in line with our expectations
UK, as usual, with 38% of the season sold, is the most advanced booked on a larger programme. Bookings are at +8% and ASP +3% against Winter 2022/23
Holiday Experiences trading remains well on track to deliver in line with expectations both for Summer 2023 and Winter 2023/24

TUI reconfirms expectations to increase underlying EBIT2 significantly for both Q4 2023 and also for FY 2023 against FY 2022TUI Group
Q4 underlying EBIT FY 20232 expected to increase significantly against prior year – Hotels & Resorts anticipated to be close to an already strong prior year. Both Cruises and Markets & Airlines set to achieve a significantly improved result with a strong increase in results expected for TUI Musement
FY 2023 Assumption2 – we reconfirm our expectations to increase underlying EBIT significantly for  FY 2023
Mid-term ambitions – we are focused on operational excellence and execution of our strategy. We have a clear strategy to accelerate profitable growth with new customer segments and more product sales. Our mid-term 2025/26 ambitions are for underlying EBIT to significantly build on 1.2bn euros3. We have a target to return to a gross leverage ratio4 of well below 3.0x and aim to return to a credit rating in line with the pre-pandemic rating of BB / Ba territory
We will issue the TUI Group Full Year results on Wednesday 6 December 2023 and hold a presentation for investors and analysts in London on the same day. Further details will follow

1 Bookings up to 10 September 2023 and relate to all customers whether risk or non-risk
2 Based on constant currency
3 FY 2019 underlying EBIT of 893m euros including 293m euros Boeing MAX cost impact
4 Defined as gross debt (financial liabilities incl. lease liabilities & net pension obligations) divided by underlying EBITDA